Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Pending Home Sales: May 2016

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for May showing a notable pullback in sales activity with the seasonally adjusted national index falling 3.7% from April to stand 0.2% below the level seen in May 2015.

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – June 29 2016

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 1 basis points to 3.70% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume declined 2% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

S&P/Case-Shiller: April 2016

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for April reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased from March with prices rising 1.05% while the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 city index increased 0.99% and the Composite-20 city index increased 1.11% over the same period.

On an annual basis, the National index increased 5.03% above the level seen in April 2015 while the Composite-10 city index increased 4.89% and the Composite-20 city index increased 5.44% over the same period.

On a peak basis, all three indices still show significant peak declines slumping -3.21% for the National index, -11.27% for the Composite-10 city index and -9.63% for the Composite-20 city index on a peak comparison basis.