Wednesday, February 3, 2016

ADP Manufacturing Meltdown

Looking a bit deeper at today's ADP Employment Report, one finds yet another clear signal that the current expansion has topped-out making recession as a distinct possibility in 2016.

The ADP Total Manufacturing Payrolls series has continued to trend negative dropping 0.14% on an annual basis, the second year-over-year decline since the waning days of the Great Recession in 2010.

Keep in mind that while manufacturing is clearly also showing strong secular weakness, this is a very sensitive series that should not be ignored.

Also, a revitalization of the nation's manufacturing sector was a important goal of the current administration's economic policy and a particularly key focus of 2009's American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

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